August 10, 2011- Pre- (A Little Common Cents Corner) Smart Money Indicators – In Depth Analysis of Manila Mining

This is a personal, independent, in-depth analysis of the price/money flow of a stock I generally am following – Manila Mining (MA).  Everything is mainly a technical price study.  Please read my about section for all types of disclaimers.

Every technical analysis book will always tell you this – follow the smart money, and sell to the masses who know nothing and just blindly follow whatever is fed to them.  There have been several sentiment analysis indicators that’s based primarily on this thesis alone.

How essentially is the smart money uncovered?  With today’s technology, it’s pretty easy to know a stock’s movement mainly from looking at the bid/asks, as well as the accumulation and distribution over time by checking broker transactions.

For purposes of clarification, I am going to show you the story of MA/MAB – one of the best performing stocks in the Philippines, with brief news event timelines describing every technical action that followed.    Trading is a poker game where the hands are open, if you care to look at the big forest and not every single tree.  Look at the big picture, to not get lost of the primary trend.  This is the reason why there’s always an edge in the markets, if you know where to look, have the discipline to follow a plan and execute with the best risk management.  I call this informed speculation.

Manila Mining (PSE:MA)

Everyone (at least most traders) in the Philippines knows this is controlled by its owner – Mr. Felipe Yap.  Let’s see the broker “tells”:

Broker Study Timeline: July 23, 2010- August 9, 2011

MA Net Sell lists the following top sellers:

1.) F. Yap Securities selling 116 Mil worth of shares

2.) Yao & Zalcita selling 102 Mil worth, Philippine Equity Partners selling 81 Mil worth, Abacus selling 57 mil worth.

3.) Just view the images for complete studies.  I only included net sellers of 25 Mil pesos above.

MA Net Buys lists the following top buyers:

1.) Macquarie buys 342 Mil worth, Angping 117 Mil worth

2.) It’s notable that Credit Suisse is tapped recently with a net buy of  20Mil worth near highs of 6.8 centavos

3.) RCBC, Citiseconline, Deutsche, ATR Kim Eng, Venture, Jaka, Thing On , Bernad and Triton have net buys ranging from 32-54 Mil worth for one year now.

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In these trying times, I checked who accumulated in this round.  Time Period Checked: July 20 2011- August 9, 2011

1.) Deutsche and Macquarie are bargain hunting at 6.1 and 6.2 centavos recently with 40 Mil clips worth.

2.) Asia Sec, Bernad, RCBC have also joined the fray of bargain hunters with 33-24 Mil worth accumulated at 6.4 centavos

3.) Credit Suisse is most probably the “broker” being used to push the stock up eating 300 Mil shares at 6.8 centavos (the most recent breakout point for momentum technicians) or about 20 Mil worth.

1.) Obviously the “insider” wants people to puke their shares in a declining market.  What better way to do that, by “showing” the name F Yap Securities as the top seller with 43 Mil worth of selling on the board. Average price sold – 6.4 centavos

2.) Phil Equity Partner joins the selling party with 6.7 centavos average, selling 26 Mil worth

3.) Ansaldo, Papa Securities and Thing on sells between 25Mil to 19 Mil worth at 6.5 – 6.2 centavos.

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The obvious ones are normally the right answers.  I’ve always remembered talking to my girlfriend before that whenever something pops out very strongly, that’s normally the easiest trading idea.  Too much analysis leads to paralysis.  Without further ado, MA stock is controlled by three sets of brokers- The real buyers- are Macquarie and Angping Securities.  The shares accumulated here were worth very cheap.  Check your own historical brokers.  It’s a pity my software can only go so far as a year, but despite this puzzle, it’s very apparent who to look forward to on your trading day.  The “foreign brokers” are being used to push it up- whether they be ATR Kim Eng, Deutsche or most recently Credit Suisse, or big funds here such as RCBC – are just players that do the pushing.  Sellers to make people panic come from F. Yap Securities and Phil Equity Partner.  How Yao and Zalcita, has so many shares to sell (100 Mil worth) and Abacus (50Mil worth) may be a sign of how the smart money leaves the stock, or just a passing of hands.  In any case, I always think smart money indicators such as the analysis above helps me picture the stock market “poker game” with more vivid colors than just the chart itself.

News Events Related to Manila Mining:

1.) (March 31, 2011 – Bloomberg) MA Price – 3.3 Centavos

Philex Mining Corp. (PX) , the nation’s biggest producer of metals, increased 1.8 percent to 15.08 pesos, set for the highest close since Feb. 25. ABS-CBN reported the company is close to reaching a joint venture agreement with Manila Mining Corp. (MA) , citing Philex Chairman Manuel Pangilinan.

2.) (April 20, 2011 – Bloomberg) MA Price – 3.8 centavos

Manila Mining Corp. (MAB)’s Class A shares (MA PM), which are reserved for Filipinos, climbed 8.6 percent to 3.8 centavos, the highest since November 1995 after Chairman Felipe Yap said talks with Philex Mining Corp. (PX) for a venture on the Kalayaan project are “progressing well” and an agreement may be concluded “soon.” Manila Mining Class B shares (MAB PM), which have no ownership restrictions, gained 2.7 percent to 3.8 centavos, the highest since May 2007. Philex advanced 4 percent to 17.74 pesos, bound for the highest since Dec. 3, 2009.

3.) (May 12, 2011 – Bloomberg) MA Price – 5 Centavos

Philex Mining Corp. (PX) , the nation’s biggest producer of metals, advanced 6.5 percent to 19.72 pesos, the highest close based on prices going back to January 1990. The company said it reached a final agreement with Manila Mining Corp. (MAB) to explore and jointly develop the Kalayaan copper-gold project.

Manila Mining Class A shares (MA PM), which are reserved for Filipinos, jumped 6.4 percent to 5 centavos, the highest level since August 1995. Its Class B shares (MAB PM), which have no ownership restrictions, climbed 6.4 percent to 5 centavos.

4.)  (July 26, 2011- Bloomberg) MA Price – 6.2 centavos

Gold producers: Manila Mining Co.’s Class B shares (MAB PM), which have no ownership restrictions, gained 1.6 percent to 6.2 centavos, the highest close since August 1995, after the price of the precious metal advanced to an all-time high. Philex Mining Corp. (PX) , the nation’s biggest metals producer, advanced 1 percent to 24.35 pesos, snapping a four-day slump.

Gold for immediate delivery climbed to a record $1,624.07 an ounce yesterday. It traded at $1,614.78 an ounce today.

 5.)  (August 8, 2011- ABS CBN News) MA Price – 6.7 centavos

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/08/08/11/philex-mining-reports-copper-gold-mine

Manuel Pangilinan’s Philex Mining Corp. released a report saying its Boyongan-Bayugo property in Surigao has 4.9 billion pounds of copper and 9 million ounces of gold, close to its earlier estimates by external consultants.

Philex said it expects Bayugo and the adjacent Kalayaan claim will be enhanced once they are developed jointly, Pangilinan, chairman of Philex Mining Corp., said in a statement to the stock exchange.

Philex bought 60 percent of Kalayaan from Felipe Yap’s Manila Mining Corp. in May. It also bought 5 percent of Manila Mining parent company Lepanto Consolidated Mining Co.

Philex is 31 percent owned by Hong Kong-based First Pacific Co., where Pangilinan is managing director and chief executive officer.

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If history is a guide, let Philex mining’s indefatigable chart provide a possible “Will history repeat itself story?” PX’s 10 Year chart is from a low of  10 cents to 25 pesos.

– The Faceless Trader

(All data above can be found publicly online.  You don’t have to be an insider to get these data.  These are information out in public.  Insights above are purely mine, shouldn’t be misconstrued as a recommendation to buy and/or sell, but merely for the purpose of enlightening and education to help in actionable and better formed decisions. )