June 21, 2016 – FX Trading Plan for USDCAD

Weekly Structure of USDCAD

We’re at a possible weekly support range .  This is the midpoint of the last 15 years.  So I view this important.  Note too that we are currently testing the previous resistance of year 2007 that became the support for the dollar cad so 1.2680 level is an important level to note.cad weekly.png

USDCAD actually extended to a six sigma event or between 1.5-1.618 recently when it fell 1.2465.  This was when oil hit 52 dollars.  Oil is currently at 49.60 and if oil continues higher — then likely we’ll see the dollar further weaken in support of CAD however, as you can see on my previous article about the exhaustion point as well on oil – we’re likely going to see a lower high on oil and thus, a possible higher low on USDCAD.  Let me show the scenario.

usdcad take.png

USDCAD structure shows us a consolidation of CAD gains for the year.  It shows me in the daily that it’s now in a range pattern with 1.3193 likely the top and 1.24 the likely extended drop and a basecase of 1.2643 as likely low for this week.

usdcad struc.png

USDCAD is interesting for me because it’s currently residing at the WATR estimated halfway bottom and very near support.

usdcad now.png

usdcad box.png

usdcad lows.png

 

My trade idea is that USDCAD will form a higher low so long 1.2743-1.2750; stoploss 1.2600

TP 1.2990 or better

*This assumes oil will not break 52 anytime this week.

Forex Factory Calendar Catalyst -June 22 Crude Oil Inventories 1030pm Philippine time tomorrow.  Brace for some oil volatility tomorrow.

  • Faceless Trader

 

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