Nov 17 2014 – Conviction Comes From Knowing Risks and Knowing that You Cannot Know Everything

Net foreign buying of 209M pesos on value traded of P6 Bil.

*****

Honestly, I just have to say that you can only have conviction when you know the risks of the company and the fact that there are risks you will never know but are prepared to take because you’ve assessed that the rewards are still greater than the risks.

In the case of Retail, we have good tail wind.  None of us knows the income results of these retailers by February 2015 (when FY14 earnings are out), but we can all guess.

Retail Strength Comes from Christmas Shopping Spree and Thirteenth Month Pay.  I’ve been saying this over and over like a “sirang plaka” in Faceless Trader facebook group.  (Yes I keep on repeating again and again.  Why not? Choconut?)

#SSI breaks 8.30 and closes 8.51 or a new high.  More importantly, the value traded is P418 Mil.

People who have this, again – do nothing.  Relax.

If you’re afraid that 8.50 will fall back to 8.00, then all you need to do is 1.) trail stop.  2.) check your volume – is that too much or too little?  If you have plenty of volume and it’s going right up, just as planned – then you can trim only because you have over-allocated your funds to #SSI.  If you are satisfied with your holdings, then just let the tsupiteros complicate their lives by selling 8.40-8.50 levels and then trying to buy back their positions at 8.00 levels.

NFS -14/418

#RRHI – broke 70 last Friday and continued upwards going 72 today with an intraday high of 73. You’ve done your homework.  You bought already at 63-64.  Now’s not the time to be quickly selling your stake (unless you’ve got a tremendous amount of shares) which you can trim and take profit partially.  All you have to do is nothing but ride.  Most likely if the market pulls back, this one’s on an uptrend channel and will create higher lows at 65-67.  Given the strong bullish move of 60 to 74, your next resistance is a new high of 80 pesos (maybe next year upon coinciding with the Costa Coffee.)  When you’re riding the right companies, you have the conviction to ride out the bumps inherent even in an uptrend channel.

+46/202

#PGOLD – you are dealing with a bottoming out formation.  Don’t expect a quick move to 40 but a slow trek up.  Nevertheless, the dip was short lived and didn’t even touch 35.  Try to hold this even if it takes a long time.  It is worth the wait. +32/113

#COSCO neither here nor there but +18/34 at 7.93, let it consolidate. no rush. 😀

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Those #CMT blocks proved to be the bottom at hand.  Currently closed 2.21 +13.92% up on 236M peso value traded.

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Earnings for the Andrew Tan group weren’t spectacular, but a few people see the value already at hand :

#RWM gets bargain hunting near 8 (-12/68) (watch those support levels – very near oversold and ripe for possible bargain hunting)

#EMP sleeps again at its 10.58-10.60 consolidation (+4/14) – volume too small – almost negligible to even consider a value traded day.

#AGI sellers are less today. 24.20 (-3/331)

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All Banks are Strong with #BDO leading +127/385, now 106 bucks 😀

#SECB 153.20, -11/56

#MBT +22/198 , 84.65 (retested 82 levels only and then bounced. )  This one is forming a sustainable bottoming out here between 82-85.

#BPI +15/145, 95 – no movement

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#DMC and #SCC finding bargain hunters at 15 and 120 levels.

+1/48, +11/109

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Lopez stocks all performing well due to good earnings and good prospects for 2015

#EDC – bullish flag – now 8.2 -24/124

#FGEN 26.8 -47/153

#FPH 90.15 -10/16

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#NIKL upcoming cash divs of 50 cents and 50% stock divs ; 42.50 ; -22/85

Two IPOs are low float – #PSPC and #X are both low float.  Up to the issuers now what they’d like to do with it.

– Faceless Trader

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