Oct 22, 2014 – Strong Companies Bloom in a Lackluster Market – Take Partial Profits 7150

So our index climbed 86 points to close at 7,154.22 and just like that, we’ve already reached our short term “resistance” point where tsupiteros will cash out some of their blue chips.  Not bad.  Value traded is small though at P6.5 Bil pesos with P16M NFB (primarily all going to #BLOOM). Tranche sell starting PSEI 7150 onwards as a guide for tsupitero swing traders.

And of course the star of the show is none other than #BLOOM which closes at 14.50, at the high of the day and most importantly at the high of the year.  What’s with #BLOOM? +209/513

Well, for the past couple of days that market does nothing, #BLOOM has steadily diverged in a bullish format by constantly attracting foreign buying, consolidating in a tight band and then breaks out above 14 to close at new highs with strong volume.  Momentum loves strength.  (This makes #BLOOM although temporarily overbought, a BTFD candidate.)

bloom takes the cake

Bloom gets half a billion pesos traded value today, half of it primarily foreign (and take note, foreigners never sold a single share this entire downturn.  They have been bullish on BLOOM as much as how they were bullish with URC before.  There’s so much momentum strength, flows and funda strength on this one, a 100% BLOOM portfolio would have made you a super portfolio manager)

And Just like my favorite mentor’s mantra: Buy strong companies indeed.  That’s not the only time Wealth bought #BLOOM.  #BLOOM has been in the top 10 holdings of the fund ever since 8-10 levels to 12 levels to the 11 placement price and so forth.    Consider that P14.50 an :average up and increase weight.  Average cost must be pretty much in the P11 levels mark despite that average up. 😀  After 2 consecutive quarterly earnings growth surprises, would the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter surprise with even more positive income?  the market has voted a good outcome so strength begets strength.

buy strong companies indeed

super bloom

Super #BLOOM is making a parabolic move.  Note that the strong consolidation support was P11-12.00  Any dips will probably be capped at worst case scenario P13.00 with possible resistance hovering at P15.00 unless we get a cataclysmic fundamental earnings report that goes sour.  If this gets pierced too strongly on the bullish side above P15, only resistance is P16.88 which is the previous all time high.

If this company doesn’t retrace below P14.00 that means that the setup is very strong such that there’s a higher likelihood that it rises to 15 immediately and retests 16.88.  For now, all #BLOOM shareholders hold and attempt to add your positions on any significant profit taking pullback near P13.50 levels which is a 50% Fibo from 13-14.50 short term move.

bullish flag setup possible continuation

*****

#BPI 6.14% gain!   gets pushed to 100.30 at the close (for whatsoever reason, I don’t know but hell thanks for that rally since we can take home some good profits.) 40M over 43M traded.  There must have been a $1Mil market on close order that had to be filled on this stock which explains the move.  Talk about illiquidity right? 😀

#SECB parties on to P145.7 with 49/211.  Tsupiteros who took the chance to buy during 6900 level index when this tanked to 135 are up 10 bucks for a week’s trade.  I know some basureros will scoff but we take what we can get right?  Not too bad for these banks.

#BDO stayed afloat at 97.9  +30/176

Should I still mention #MBT?  Okay this laggard is still a laggard. -68/267 and closes at 82.7, see if 80 bucks it can hit and then see if flows reverse, if not..it’s still looking for a support base so no need to be rushing in.

#RCB – Steady at 54 with foreign flows entering  25/48 (Place on your watch)

#EW – The vomit here has really happened.  You see, no one wants to sell at 25.  That’s why when someone wants to get P1M worth, the stock climbs and hits 26.55 =1.2/2.1  (This is really an illiquid vomit.  For people who like vomits and unloved stocks, place Eastwest bank on your attractive unloved basket of stocks.)  The lack of interest on this company apparent on the value traded shows you that disinterest is a value investor’s companion.  Only for patient people.  Never for tsupiteros.

*****

Dear friend #ALI and #MEG also rebounds.  Guess that “paranoia” from property developers getting less sales take up was quickly ignored as market sees these two strong companies less affected from that financing policy.  That foreign selling of #ALI at 32.10-32.50 levels as well as #MEG being foreign sold at 4.70 below were great opportunities to be contrarian and BTFD opportunities. 😀  I personally picked up some #MEG when it was falling so this rally was a nice day to lock in some profits.

#ALI is up 4% and to close at 33.40 (132/276) – Don’t bet against Ayala Land.  The dips are always great opportunities to buy good companies.  I just wished it could have fallen further near 30 levels.

#MEG is up 4.49% to close at 4.89 (not too shabby for the people who picked up the vomit and puke from the shakedowns below 4.70 all the way to 4.55 areas) 😀 (64/256.  This has always been a great stock for tsupiteros and investors.  It has the liquidity and volatility.  Perfect company to trade and invest in.)

#SMPH is at 17.30, =101/196  The market picked these three companies as the least affected by the BSP policy on bank financing for property developers.  It makes sense naman.  Guess market is rational to differentiate which properties are reliant on bank financing, which have recurring income as buffer and which companies have lots of cash financed buyers to weather any possible lack of sales take up brought about by these policies.

****

We must say that #TEL and #GLO have been greatly outperforming this lackluster market.  The ability to get dividends in a market that is directionless is a strong reason why these companies are holding and (are on a buy on dips near support levels stance)

#TEL 3208 while #GLO is at 1,678 (Supports for both lie at 3000 and 1600)

#TEL though now at resistance at 3,200 so take profits (-239/621)

#GLO +51/97

Let’s not forget the fact that #EDC had a superb rebound these past few days closing at 7.73 today and reaching intraday highs of 7.81.  This stock is a power-must have- and buying on dips near 7 have proved rewarding for BTFD peeps 😀  Considering it even gave 10 cents cash div, the people trading #EDC aren’t a sad bunch.

Sure there’s foreign selling (there was foreign selling on the way down and there’s gonna be foreign selling on the way up. ie. there’s a foreign distributor from 7-8.  That’s fine right?) -162/492

Taking Profits near 8 level ain’t so bad.  Buying near 7 ain’t so bad either.  Trade the range.  Still an uptrend channel.  Buy the Dips is an intact strategy for #EDC.  November opening of Burgos Wind farm possibly the reason for the rebound these past few days other than the positive sentiment on the stock in general.

#PCOR – Okay, so after breaking 11.50, the breakdown didn’t follow through.  So that means what?  Well, nothing really.  Laggard’s still a laggard.  Unless this breaks out of its shell at 12 and rallies with strong volume, we treat this as nowhere land even if there’s foreign buying of 24/52.  Does the doubling of capacity offset any possible inventory losses from low oil prices?  Neutral to Downward Bias.

#CEB – at least its above 70.  Airlines are getting a tail wind from low oil prices despite foreign selling. -21/68

****

#RRHI getting less and less foreign selling. Bullish Divergence confirmed and 63.75  (Note that a resistance resides at 65 though.) -13/178

#PGOLD -27/108 – Weaker versus #RRHI but too oversold to be slipping down with much downside.  Worst is it sleeps, goes to 30 support and trades in a range between 30-33 until earnings come out.  Even the selling pressure is weaker as the days go by.  Note that 100M peso value traded isn’t bad for these two.  There’s bullish divergence in retail so to any seller, you’re late in selling.  Just stay with your shares and wait for November 15 when 3Q gets released for both of them.

You never know, maybe #SSI’s positive sentiment can even lift these two retailers up. November 7 is the listing date of Store Specialists Inc.

#NIKL is doing nothing.  It’s in a sleeping fashion. 41.85  +3.4/50

*****

Basuras come and go so I let your ticker tape and personal risk management (position sizing and wide stop losses of 10-20%) guide you on your endeavors.

– Faceless Trader

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3 Responses to Oct 22, 2014 – Strong Companies Bloom in a Lackluster Market – Take Partial Profits 7150

  1. Bert says:

    Hello. Any thoughts on Cosco?

    Like

    • technically oversold – due for a bounce but see resistance hovering at 8.00 (Nevertheless if #PGOLD’s earnings come in at P1 B for the quarter or better, you’ll see #COSCO rebound possibly with it. ) Funda wise- undervalued so even if it doesn’t technically move up, it’s worth buying at current levels from 7.39-7.60. Lower risks versus the reward

      Like

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