Oct 15, 2014 – Leaders Ahead of The Pack Once Again Even On A Feeble Bounce

Everyone has an opinion of the market and what I’ve learned is that I will not fight leaders.  So despite today having net foreign selling of P367 M, we see that leaders have bounced ahead of the pack once again even when we merely had a 45 point rise in the index and even if we’re still below 7,000.  This probably goes to show that instead of watching merely the index, watch as well whether the stocks you have are at support, at resistance whichever way the winds blow.  We have tricky markets these days and the best thing you could do if you’re still trading is to trade only leaders and have lots of cash.

 

A Round Up of Leaders First:

#TEL over #GLO

Yes, they both have good dividend yields.  Yes, they both have those free internet promotions (though one is free for all, and for the other its only free facebook) – the market has voiced out its opinion and the bet clearly shows #TEL.

#TEL bounces as high as 3,120 intraday with total value traded of P1.13 Bil.  That shows you that P3000 is strongly holding, and any shakeout drops below that is only a chance to buy if you’re a bull and you want a leader in your portfolio.  +463/1130   Moreover, when #TEL behaves this way, the index is influenced to go up.  So there’s your market barometer for influencing our index.  Big Cap #TEL

#GLO shows underperformance closing at P1,610 with -53/162.  Sometimes even a bounce in the index cannot make a stock rise.  Oversold but not enough.  This might remain weak for more months.  Watch out if P1,600 fails and we get more sell-offs WITH OR WITHOUT index breaking down.

*****

#BDO Ahead of Others

We’ve been saying this over and over and we’ll repeat this again.  Leaders recover first.  On bounces, you kick laggards out.

#BDO above 95 again and will be the first to go 100 if the market climbs higher.  If the market doesn’t go up, it goes to support of P90.  Whichever way the wind blows, #BDO is the one you bet with. +54/210

#MBT – Yes there’s a huge spread between the other bank mainly as foreign sell flows are still strong with -91/290.  When BDO rises though to 99, #MBT MIGHT follow up just coz the sector will help it with a tailwind.  This however is not how we want to be making money (makikisabay lang sa alon.) We want to be the ones leading the sector and keep #BDO instead.

#BPI foreign selling dominates with -55/201 Possible consolidation and sell on rallies nearest to 100.  This one still stalling

#SECB – Foreigners are taking profits at current levels , distributing P135-145 hence it’s not yet time to be nibbling. Just let them distribute to others. -44/93

#EW – Vomit level at 25 but that doesn’t mean it bounces immediately.  Let it form a consolidation base and if you’re a buyer here, you should be patient since vomits don’t bounce fiercest.  It will consolidate.  +.2/13

Power (Profit Taking But Opportunistic Re-Entry Points)

#EDC gets sold down despite market going up.  We note that since October 2, there has been relentless selling on this stock.  We thought it was just profit taking but we didn’t anticipate profit taking to be back as low as 7.18  Nevertheless, Fibonacci retracement shows that this is indeed at support with 7.00 now the gap support.  -133/244

edc uptrend still strongHere’s a retracement level support entry.  Enter between 6.96-7.19 should more sell flows from foreign come.

retracement level support entry

 

*****

#AP, #FGEN, #FPH, #LPZ all consolidating within their uptrends.  They might sleep should foreign selling continue pummelling them.  #FGEN however shows still buy flows even at current levels.  No short term trading opportunities on these though.  All are in an asleep-consolidation mode, not enough volatility to play around short term money with.

#MER, #PCOR, #TA showing supported at their respective levels.

*****

#URC – Leader for Entire Bull Market

We haven’t really seen #URC massacred.  This stock has performed tremendously well and we believe there’s not much sellers to keep this stock down unless we are already in a bear market.  So, in this rebound back to 178, we definitely saw foreign buying +155/486.  Overall, any drop near 160 will only be a BTFD for most people.

****

#CMT follows up after yesterday’s 2.00 ATR cross worth P75M, we see today another cross worth P22M at 2.16 (10M shares.)  —- reflexive rebounds near 2.30-2.50 areas on oversold condition, highly possible.

ATR seller is foreign hence -25/42

****

All Conglomerates Getting Brunt of Sell Off – No Supports Seen Yet (This will lead our index down as none of them are in anywhere near support zones.  This sector will make you cautious.)

#AC -131/258

#AEV-66/98

#AGI -14/112

#DMC -10/53

#GTCAP -117/334

#JGS +20/91 (This could be due to the #URC and #TEL effect that’s why it’s getting saved)

#LPZ +6/17 (also immune due to the Lopez strength)

#MPI -33/41

#SM -79/220

****

#ALI rebounds strongly +86/591 to close 32.5 (Attempt short term buys on dips near 30-31 on retests next few days if we get drops) – Resistances nearby at 34

#MEG -35/157 (Still in a trading range now with sellers still ruling the 4.90-5.00 areas)

#SMPH – succumbs with weakness.  This means those 17-17.50 are hereby trapped and is now a resistance.  -70/236 (Told you just coz index is up doesn’t mean your stock is up.  This shows this one will not lead the market.)

#RLC 5/18 (asleep, no trading stance to do here. not a leader either.)

****

#BLOOM strong on the gaming side (13-14 might be a trading range) but do watch out coz we’re still in corrective phase. +33/117

#MCP and the entire Melco group is weak (#PLC have a lot of cut loss placement buyers) – not good , consider taking more profits and selling more on rallies. -4/4.7

#RWM -4/14 (After hitting 10, this stock went all the way down) – Looks to me any rebound here is just meant for selling.

*****

#PGOLD and #RRHI both have selling foreign flows but little volume and they’re both in consolidation.

#PGOLD highlights their 3Q profitability.  We’ll see next month how their earnings really fared. P33.30, above previous low and double bottom retested at P32.20.  -9/38 (Too little volume so maybe this will just consolidate)

#RRHI -16/46 – Still in its consolidation mode as well @ 62

****

#NIKL Rebounds

After 2 straight days of foreign selling, we get a breather and +7/173 and goes P42.35.  For now, there’s still a trading range and a tight match between bulls and bears.  Sideways

Same for #MARC -1.8/32 Sideways

****

Everybody’s favorite Game? #LRW Game of The Day – 56 Mil pesos up at stake. Go to 3? Or Back to 2?  Thing is, who’d sell at 2?  No one since it’s too easy to pump this.  Any drops at 2.20-2.00 is being guarded by many tsupiteros.  Pump job says go to 3 and beyond tomorrow. All traders (at least jockeys seem net long 🙂

#LRW being used as Davin Part 2.  We all know this is a fly paper game but who cares?  Play while the music plays.

Let’s see if this follows through.  The bet is that if index tomorrow rises, this stock gets pumped up (similar with the jockey moves displayed on previous #DAVIN days.)  If Index falls, either jockeys push harder? or everyone cuts?  Let’s see.

And Maybe that’s the reason why #AR gets a fall out.  Possibly coz #FPI is the next one being jockeyed.  All these musical chair games.  Oks!  See ya

– Faceless Trader

 

 

 

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