October 13, 2014 – Negative 200 Point Index Drop and the 245th Worst Day in PSEI’s history since 1987

PSEI drops 199.26 points to close at 6,968.  Foreign selling is 1.1 Bil pesos.  Large caps register at least 4-5% drops with the top market weights breaking down.  We expect more selling.

Let’s start with the big caps and huge breakdowns:

#AC drops below 700 and closes at 687(expect more bleeding) – 90/401

#SM drops further to new 4 month low to 762  (expect more selling)-123/323

#BPI breaks 95 to close at 93.9 -76/177

#MBT breaks 85 and closes to a new 4 month low of 84.1 -10/209

#EW made a new low with illiquidity to go to 25 with -2.7/13.8

#SECB shows more selling (this time not profit taking but possible huge pullbacks) -22/223

Power Getting Sold As Well

#EDC breaks 7.50 closes at 7.37 -201/300

#AP hasn’t broken 40 (but will likely fall below it ) no immunity shield – 20/111

Utility Being Parked as Safe Haven But I doubt this is better than Cash

#MPI +31/111

#MER +45/108

All Consumers Continue Sell Off

#JFC broke 190 and fell the cliff. -86/160 (closes at 186) – More resistances

#URC Gets Distributed After breaking 180, it falls 10 bucks easily to close 171 -146/375

More conglomerates getting chopped off with their heads

#AEV -57/144 Breaks Down fervently and may break 50.  Closes 50.60 but Better be cautious here. Capitulation can come 10 bucks lower or 5 bucks lower – be careful here.

If only you could short #GTCAP, still at 1050 but never gonna be immune. -134/436

#JGS -25/104 (With URC’s head being chopped off, expect 50 soon)

All Properties Continue Sell Down Pressure

#ALI breaks 32 and sees 30 as near term support.  Let’s see if we get a 5% drop in the coming days.  -114/582

#MEG -73/292, as far as we can see, the entire property sector is punished and hence, #MEG likely falls and breaks 4.50.  Be careful.  5.00 is a strong resistance.

#SMPH +169/398 (Well we hope this one can continue its strength but with entire sector dropping, let’s not hope)

Telcos Clobbered

#TEL breaks 3000 and sees 2900-2800 as possible base point.  -163/300

#GLO still above 1600 but we cannot dismiss the possibility of 1500 with more selloffs ahead. -16/72

Gaming Still Strong But Hard To Find Any Immunity (Take Profits and Cash – Been saying this all day and all week and continue doing this- keep on selling and selling.  Fade the strength)

#MCP +21/69

#BLOOM +6.9/151

#LR +2.7/23

(All three of them broke down and needs time to repair the damage, no one is immune.)

Retail Gets Bargain Hunting Love

#PGOLD +3/72 (Retests 32 levels and doesn’t fall.  Good support)

#RRHI +15/85 (Bullish Divergence.  Strongly holding above 60 area – basing period starting)

Nickel Miners  – Good News Cant Lift It Up

#NIKL -41/232 Market ignored the good disclosure of value shipments rising to 20 Bil with 7.87 and 14 WMT sold for 9M.  Global negative sentiment being more focused than individual companies.  Nevertheless, 39.90.  Resistance strong at 44-45.  Technically broke below 40 and thus, vulnerable to more setbacks despite good fundamentals.  Prepare for more sell-offs if any unless it rebounds along with global sentiment.  From my understanding, this broke down and has leeway to test every peso level (39,38,37,36 until 35.) depending how deep the market sells off.

Same for #MARC, don’t think this one gets saved even if it has less foreign selling because foreigners had not entered in bulk and largely held by locals. Breaks 7 forcefully.  -159K/47M

All Signs Definitely Bearish/  

I will publish more relevant data driven opportunities such as answering the following questions:

1.) How much does the index have to bleed to find a possible short term bottom (based on quantitative data we can find in the past 27 years)?

2.) How rare is a 3% drop in the index and what usually occurs after 1 week, 1 month and 3 months?  Is it more likely that a bounce happens or more selling?

3.) How large usually are the rebounds if any within 1 week, 1 month and so forth?

4.) Volatility is extreme at turning points – Soros. So how many times did it happen near a 1yr high, a 2yr high, an all-time high? did market continue afterwards? or reversed?

You may go to my group (Faceless Trader Facebook Group) to find the file and tinker it for yourselves.  Maybe there are more programmers there who can tinker with the data better 😀

We have a lot of work to do 😀

– Faceless Trader

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