We had a good jobs report in the USA (up DJIA 200 points since last close of trading day in the Philippines), a bounce in HK (+1000 points from los) as protests getting thinner but our Philippine market couldn’t be green. What could be more bearish than that right? We are in a corrective wave. Market drops 7.65 points to close at 7,239.38 with net foreign selling of 6.068 Bil pesos. This includes 5 Bil worth of block sale from the #COAT tender offer at 6 pesos. It also includes block sales of #BDO, #RWM, #VLL, #LPZ and #ALI. If I take the block sales out, we are still NFS of P617M.
There are limited pockets of opportunities for the swing traders but quite a lot of opportunities for the peso cost averaging traders. Lemme enumerate with the best sectors first:
Best sectors for Swing Trading are Gaming, Banking and Power, (Dark Horse – Nickel Miners) :
It’s evident in the tape and the flows. They are the only greens in this red meat market.
The vegetarians of the market are:
Gaming Race to 14 (Melco versus Bloom)
#MCP P13.50 +18/33
#BLOOM P13.76 +46/81
#LR +3/17 #LRW -.15/20.5 (#LRW gets more value traded and rises 21% up to 2.30- gamblers want the warrants more.)
(PLC and BEL are different stories altogether, they’re lagging the sector after the roadshow)
Power Themes (Two leaders here : AP and EDC – buy them on any significant dips)
#AP above 41, +21/151
#EDC some profit taking here at 8 levels -26/221
Banking Space (Getting a Breather. Profit Taking on Some but Others showing Possible Buy Entries)
#BDO and #SECB – been leaders for quite some time get foreign selling
#MBT +20/46 (First time foreign buying!)
#EW -1/15 (Consolidating and up after 10 consecutive days of selling since Sept 22 breakdown from 29)
25.85 Vomit Buy for the Patient Peso Cost Averager
#RCB – Chart still intact. +2.6/5.4
Dark Horse- Nickel Miners (Bulls Versus Bears)
Despite many headwinds, this one looks like a buy on dips with 40 holding. If 40-41 ever retests, we want to see if foreign buying emerges with larger value traded and larger foreign buying.
#NIKL +14/173 @ 44
#MARC 9/37 @ 7.07
Where’s the Foreign Whipping Going on? Ok here we go:
Both Retail Unloved (but then again note that despite value traded of foreign selling, limited drops happening signifying some bargain hunting)
#PGOLD -62/90 @ 33.45
#RRHI -194/231 @ 60.95 (Nearing IPO price of 58)
Watch when value traded eclipses around 500M and we can find a possible capitulation from the sellers 😀 Any time now. Either capitulation or just a slow consolidation which will be great for vomit buyers – another 5% downside will have to do.
How’s consumer? #URC still queen bee but this sector is starting to be a sleep distribution.
#EMP +.1/66 (Aba biglang nawala ang foreign selling)
#EEI +10/28 (aba may foreign accumulation pala to, two days na)
Conglos (Inevitable Pullbacks)
#GTCAP +36/227 (1077) – the lone leader of the sector but can’t go on forever if entire breadth of sector ain’t participating with it.
Props (Leaders getting sold)
Aba foreign sell pa rin pala #CEB Guess this shows kahit up ung chart, flows are all local. -30/99 Last price 69.90
#TELCOS Safe Haven Parking Lot Pa Rin
#GLO Foreign Buying na +17/211
As you can see, although the tape shows bearishness – at least we know where we should be parking ourselves in .
Opportunities come to those who wait. Let’s see some capitulation from the companies that have significant foreign selling and hopefully the ones that are leaders give a substantial pullback for some good trading opportunities. Nickel Bulls also get a good rally of 10-15% from the lows 🙂
– Faceless Trader