Oct 7, 2014 – Limited Pockets of Opportunities, Delaying the Inevitable (Bears Still Growling)

We had a good jobs report in the USA  (up DJIA 200 points since last close of trading day in the Philippines), a bounce in HK (+1000 points from los) as protests getting thinner but our Philippine market couldn’t be green.  What could be more bearish than that right?  We are in a corrective wave.  Market drops 7.65 points to close at 7,239.38 with net foreign selling of 6.068 Bil pesos.  This includes 5 Bil worth of block sale from the #COAT tender offer at 6 pesos.  It also includes block sales of #BDO, #RWM, #VLL, #LPZ and #ALI. If I take the block sales out, we are still NFS of P617M.

blocks on october

There are limited pockets of opportunities for the swing traders but quite a lot of opportunities for the peso cost averaging traders.  Lemme enumerate with the best sectors first:

Best sectors for Swing Trading are Gaming, Banking and Power, (Dark Horse – Nickel Miners) : 

It’s evident in the tape and the flows.  They are the only greens in this red meat market.

The vegetarians of the market are:

Gaming Race to 14 (Melco versus Bloom)

#MCP P13.50 +18/33

#BLOOM P13.76 +46/81

#LR +3/17 #LRW -.15/20.5 (#LRW gets more value traded and rises 21% up to 2.30- gamblers want the warrants more.)

#RWM +44/87

(PLC and BEL are different stories altogether, they’re lagging the sector after the roadshow)

Power Themes (Two leaders here : AP and EDC – buy them on any significant dips) 

#AP above 41, +21/151

#EDC some profit taking here at 8 levels -26/221

#FGEN -5/49

#FPH +8/40

#MER +14/93

#PCOR +26/57

#TA -.1/23M

#ACR -.1/7

Banking Space (Getting a Breather.  Profit Taking on Some but Others showing Possible Buy Entries) 

#BDO and #SECB – been leaders for quite some time get foreign selling

#BDO -46/218

#SECB -76/106

#BPI +14/169

#MBT +20/46 (First time foreign buying!) 

#EW -1/15 (Consolidating and up after 10 consecutive days of selling since Sept 22 breakdown from 29)

25.85 Vomit Buy for the Patient Peso Cost Averager

#RCB – Chart still intact. +2.6/5.4

*****

Dark Horse- Nickel Miners (Bulls Versus Bears)

Despite many headwinds, this one looks like a buy on dips with 40 holding.  If 40-41 ever retests, we want to see if foreign buying emerges with larger value traded and larger foreign buying.

#NIKL +14/173 @ 44

#MARC 9/37 @ 7.07

Where’s the Foreign Whipping Going on?  Ok here we go:

Both Retail Unloved (but then again note that despite value traded of foreign selling, limited drops happening signifying some bargain hunting)

#PGOLD -62/90 @ 33.45

#RRHI -194/231 @ 60.95 (Nearing IPO price of 58)

Watch when value traded eclipses around 500M and we can find a possible capitulation from the sellers 😀  Any time now. Either capitulation or just a slow consolidation which will be great for vomit buyers – another 5% downside will have to do.

*****

How’s consumer?  #URC still queen bee but this sector is starting to be a sleep distribution. 

#URC +111/346

#JFC +.6/66

#EMP +.1/66 (Aba biglang nawala ang foreign selling)

#DNL -2/53

Construction 

#EEI +10/28  (aba may foreign accumulation pala to, two days na)

Conglos (Inevitable Pullbacks)

#AC -92/253

#AGI -98/293

#JGS -33/151

#DMC -33/69

#GTCAP +36/227 (1077) – the lone leader of the sector but can’t go on forever if entire breadth of sector ain’t participating with it.

#SM -194/322

Props (Leaders getting sold)

#ALI -209/603

#MEG -164/418

#SMPH -38/151

#RLC +3/33

#VLL -5/104

#Airlines

Aba foreign sell pa rin pala #CEB  Guess this shows kahit up ung chart, flows are all local.  -30/99 Last price 69.90

#TELCOS Safe Haven Parking Lot Pa Rin

#GLO  Foreign Buying na +17/211

#TEL -47/753

*****

As you can see, although the tape shows bearishness – at least we know where we should be parking ourselves in .

Opportunities come to those who wait.  Let’s see some capitulation from the companies that have significant foreign selling and hopefully the ones that are leaders give a substantial pullback for some good trading opportunities.   Nickel Bulls also get a good rally of 10-15% from the lows 🙂

– Faceless Trader

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