Oct 3, 2014 – Rollercoaster Volatility —>Upticks But Foreign Sold (Be Cautious)

We are not out of the woods but nickel prices climbed back last night at 7.29/lb or above $16,000/ton and that was good enough for some breathing room to the nickel bulls on the unabated selling of nickel miners. Below are news snippets which affected the trading of nickel miners:

1.) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-03/nickel-in-london-rebounds-before-u-s-payroll-data.html

Nickel climbed for the first time in seven days, leading industrial metals higher, on speculation recent losses were excessive and before payroll data from the U.S., the second-biggest consumer.

Nickel has been extremely oversold,” said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager at Astmax Asset Management Inc. in Tokyo. “An improving U.S. economy will ease concern that global demand is slowing.”

2.) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/price-volatility-dampens-nickel-miners-gathering/story-e6frg8zx-1227078292809

Despite the recent weakness, Western Areas managing director Dan Lougher said conditions in the nickel sector now were still far better than a year ago.

He said his reception at a recent roadshow to North America, London, Sydney and Melbourne was the best for “at least” five years. “We’re making a lot more money in this half of the year than we did in the whole past two years,” Mr Lougher said.

He is confident the nickel price can resume its upward run by the end of the year.

“There is an oversupply at the moment. The turnaround that we all anticipated with the drop-off in nickel pig iron, obviously some of that is being picked up by the Philippines volumes going into the Chinese market. Is the Filipino ore filing the gap? It can’t. I’m very confident that towards the end of the year we will start to see some of that eroded.”

Alto Capital research analyst Casey Smith has recognised the headwinds facing the sector, but is still tipping nickel to average $US20,000 a tonne next year.

“Between 2013 and the end of next year, China is forecast to have lost 300,000 tonnes of its ore sources of nickel,” Mr Smith said.

The three-year rise in LME stockpiles to record levels doesn’t worry Poseidon Nickel chief executive David Singleton, who expects the market to fall into a “substantial deficit” next year.

“I think we can confidently expect that by the end of this year, the very early part of next year, we would start to see those LME stockpiles come down. That will really be the trigger for the nickel price next year.”

*****

#NIKL +42.70, closes near high of the day of 42.90 with P356 Mil value traded, net foreign selling still stands at 141 million.  Above 40, but still below initial resistance of P45.00

Trading range for now. Neutral and sideways.

Other nickel miners :

#MARC -1/27 @6.84

#ORE 2.34

#CMT -4/7 @ 2.27

#BKR 3.72

*****

Bank leaders (only 2) ascended to their new highs with #BDO leading at a 99 close.  +61.9/174

#SECB stays afloat +135/207

Laggards continue to lag with #MBT still below 90 at 86.70 with -79/135

#BPI becoming a laggard despite closing at 99 with -89/325

#EW vomit? – wait for the foreign selling to finish.  -2.5/7 (this kind of selling may last a long time so even a bounce is not likely until some time, but this is good for accumulators who want something with upside and less downside) Closing price 25.85 (Wait for a lot of vomit if capitulation is possible, abang lang.)

Power

After huge foreign buying, they finally consolidate (but check them out on significant pullbacks)

#EDC -82/264

#FGEN -96/163

#FPH -44/60

#MER, #PCOR both get good buy flows at +115/170 and +91/259 respectively

Consumer

#JFC makes a new weekly high with 196.40 and close to its all time high.  +20/89

Gokongwei Stocks – Distribution Happening

#URC -166/407 (amidst new highs of 180-188 but being distributed – so not a good sign)

#JGS @56.5 and -125/193

#CEB -61/108

All Properties Still Sold by Foreign

#MEG -120/268

#ALI -53/376

#FLI -23/24

#RLC -12/63

#VLL -34/184

#SMPH -18/114

#HOUSE -1.7/22

Some Telco Safety Haven:

#GLO +3/115

#TEL +85/562

****

Gaming Accumulation Still Happening

#RWM +29/128

#LR +2.5/17

#MCP +5/27

#BLOOM -.2/13

*****

#RRHI is more unloved than #PGOLD.  At least to console those stuck in their #PGOLD dead bodies.  Some strong volume occurring at these levels despite some foreign selling. (At least some strong bargain hunting going on)

#RRHI -81/196 (Still a breakdown nonetheless. 65 remains resistance)

#PGOLD -19/116 (Lesser foreign selling – has more leeway to gain than with #RRHI from the way flows control the scene) 33.75 barat bid zones.

*****

New High But Foreign Sold #GTCAP -30/193 at 1060 closing

Weird but #MG gets +27/32 foreign buying today.  Why?  45 centavos.

Why was #EG also 16 cents?  Is there something happening in here? 22Mil value traded ain’t a small joke.

Something happening on #VITA? 10M value trades today. @ 1.13 close

****

Total Tally? Foreign Selling of 862 Mil on an up 50 points day.  This A Recipe of Distribution?  We’ll see.

Happy Weekend.

-FT

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