How Long and How High Have We Gone From The Lows?
I know it seems like long ago, but back in Sept/Oct 2011, the Philippine index was sitting in its 3700/3800 level, and fell from a high of 4400/4500. The 5200/5300 target your technical guideposts told you was precisely just the distance between (4500-3700)=800 points possible upside, and we achieved the 5300 target last May 4, 2012. Yes, the “Sell in May” crowd have done it once again, laughing their way at the bank for the umpteenth time.
Euphoria fading? Too Fast Too Furious? Consolidation Most Likely?
If you take a look at the time where the Philippine index made its lows, and made a sell in May strategy, the following would have been your snapshot returns. (Everything looks rosy and easy in hindsight, mind you.)
No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, we have come a long way. While there are stocks that are very resilient such as PGOLD,FPH that’s just less than 2% from its May highs, and stellar performers such as PXP with spectacular gains (jackpot because the seismic study was a very big surprise anyway), and stocks such as GMAP, MBT,CHIB, MWIDE,FGEN,FPH,LPZ,MWC,AP – still managing to cling to its gains and falling less than 10% from its highs, Philippines’ bright fundamentals cannot just ignore all the risks happening outside of the region. Perhaps consolidation of gains is likely? Perhaps , perhaps, perhaps.
Still though, at least this price performance shows you that the “Sell in May” strategy, and buying the fear last September would have given you outsized returns without having to really play exotic, jockeyed and manipulated stocks. The only difference, is that you had to wait 7-8 months, instead of a couple of days + you needed to have lots of balls picking up those distressed assets when everyone was selling them like crazy. 🙂
Please check out my past related posts:
Read September- October 2011 posts in the archives – where I talked about picking up MBT,PGOLD and how they damn well performed this round. Hindsight sucks all the time. I should just stick to picking stocks and not doing any market timing whatsoever. I suck in timing the markets all the time. Sigh… I should eat my own horse sh*t.
Below are also summaries of my top posts for the past 90 days and for the past 365 days: