June 10, 2012- Black Swans Happen

Black Swans happen.  Shit always happens.

Boxing fans are now feeling the way leveraged ETF traders are feeling – Howard Lindzon (his tweet after the Pac Brad decision)

Whenever there’s something you are “absolutely certain of”, Murphy’s law will always reign.  Because the truth of the matter is that there will always be an element of uncertainty which is why there’s always a buyer and a seller.  Someone will always take the other side of the trade, and be paid for the risk he/she is making to take that “perceived disadvantage” and it’ll be seen on the betting side.  Last I checked, anyone who bet against Manny Pacquiao made 400% of their initial bet.  Each 100 bet makes 500.  Each 100 bet on Manny winning makes 116.

Call it what you may, but the first thing that popped into my mind when I saw that Pacquiao lost over Bradley on a decision was “F*ck, I really really wonder how much Mr. Sing–n lost in that fight.  Hope he hedged his bets.”   My twitter and facebook page was filled with forms of “sadness, disgust, and disbelief”.  Someone posted this picture, while another tweeted “let the protests begin hahaha.”  I can’t begin to tell all the numerous twitter memes after the event.  Some of the funny ones I’m posting below:

#PacShet , #RIPBoxing and #PACBradley are the top three trending topics in Twitter,  in the Philippine category, and is also the most trending topic  worldwide, at least for this day June 10,2012.

So whatever the numbers say… here’s the take: Price pays.  Who won?  Bradley, not Pacquiao.

“Luto”, rigged whatever you want to call it.  The Pacquiao – Bradley fight, the Celtics, the Spurs and all sorts of shitty things in the world happens.  We fight to survive another day.  We manage our risks.  We position size our bets.  We survive these things and we thrive in the long run.

Favorite Quotes/Tweets on Risk Management:

1.) “Don’t try to be 100% right.” In fact the pursuit of perfection in trading will likely lead to catastrophic results. That is why some perspective on failure and loss is a key to staying in the trading game.

(Sorry forgot where I heard/read this from, came from my old notebook)

2.) “But even if it wasn’t raining on the soybean fields, it was in the “heads of the traders and that is all that counts”.  To the market nothing matters unless the market reacts to it.  The game is played with the mind and the emotions.  – Bob Tamarkin, “the New Gatsbys”

3.) Discipline helps mitigate the nemesis of all traders, namely emotion.

4.) The graves of Wall Street are filled with people who are right, but early.

5.) Men can be irrational longer than you are solvent – John Maynard Keynes from Adam Smith ‘s The Money Game

6.) There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world.  Technical Analysis provides the only mechanism to measure the “irrational” (emotional) component present in all markets.

Related Links:

1.)Pacquiao Loses and Succumbs to the 16th Superstitious Curse (GMA7)

2.) Bradley scores decision win over Pacquiao (Associated Press) 

“I listened to my corner,” Bradley said. “I got to give him a rematch now.”

Arum said there will be one on Nov. 10, though he thought Pacquiao won easily, as did most writers at ringside.

“I’ll make a lot of money off the rematch, but this was outrageous,” Arum said.

– Faceless Trader , stay sane in this insane world and just get used to blackswans.  🙂


About Abc

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9 Responses to June 10, 2012- Black Swans Happen

  1. Ben says:

    I think Chavit hedged his bet. placed some money on Bradley just in case. 🙂


  2. “No Hermes” lol


  3. Greece daw tumaya kay manny as their bail out plan…yari world market bukas.


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