March 4, 2012 – Some footprints on the sand

Market Outlook : Base Case Remains with the Risk On Trade which means any pullback in equities will be and should be bought. A Rotation to some speculatives may be possible.

There is no doubt that sentiment has improved dramatically. 5,000 may be just a number, but the psychological impact cannot be discounted.   With improving market conditions, speculative stocks are likely to participate in a round2 move in the frenzy (whether skyscraper gains, I don’t know).  Technically, Angping index stocks seem to have corrected and behaved just like technical textbook charts say, with prices and volume behaving well.

Pattern analysis may seem straightforward, but it is by no means an easy task. Richard Schabacker (Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits)  states:

The science of chart reading, however, is not as easy as the mere memorizing of certain patterns and pictures and recalling what they generally forecast. Any general stock chart is a combination of countless different patterns and its accurate analysis depends upon constant study, long experience and knowledge of all the fine points, both technical and fundamental, and, above all, the ability to weigh opposing indications against each other, to appraise the entire picture in the light of its most minute and composite details as well as in the recognition of any certain and memorized formula.

I would presume a lot of traders who bought speculative stocks previously got stigmatized. (Especially GEO since this has gone up to 3 pesos to 1 peso, then 2.50 and then 1.50, 1.00 and 50 cents.  It’s a very traumatizing stock for the public.  In any case, that doesn’t mean these roller coaster stocks can’t be bought or traded.  High Risk Content Below (which is why I was thinking of whether publishing this. but anyway, let’s see just how far risk appetite goes).

*****

Historical Broker Transactions Analysis of GEO:

(Short Term Analysis)

1.) GEO – Footprints 

Period: Feb. 15, 2012 – March 2, 2012 (Round 2)

Pros

1.) Wealth, Kings and Goldstar Securities (269+389+170) are buying back the shares sold previously at prices of 0.96-1.02 cents (Accumulating worth Php 32M, 26M and 18M respectively)

2.) Firstmetro, Valuequest, SB Securities, Angping and Sincere Securities (267+190+115+110+129) are also buying at prices of 0.97-1.02 of amounts equivalent to Php11.5M, 16.88M, 8.3M,  12.2 M, 9M respectively.

3.) Lucky Securities, Yu& Co and Premium Securities are bullish supporting the stock too with greater than Php5M worth bought.  Yu&Co and Lucky is stuck at 1.07 and 1.01 prices, but Premium got in at 0.95

Symbol Name Buy Ave Sell Ave
269 WEALTH SECURITIES, INC. 0.9758 1.0629 32,441,750
389 KINGS POWER SECURITIES 1.0282 0.971 26,855,370
170 GOLDSTAR SECURITIES, IN 0.9609 0.9934 18,068,650
190 VALUE QUEST SECURITIES 1.0099 0.9829 16,884,350
110 ANGPING & ASSOCIATES SE 0.9862 1.0005 12,259,720
267 FIRST METRO SECURITIES 0.9769 0.9786 11,536,880
129 SINCERE SECURITIES CORP 0.9983 0.9598 9,009,690
115 SB SECURITIES,INC. 1.0102 0.9875 8,332,490
198 LUCKY SECURITIES, INC. 1.0161 1.0263 7,876,600
278 YU & COMPANY, INC. 1.0741 0.9564 5,634,050
225 PREMIUM SECURITIES, INC 0.9526 0.9499 5,154,500

Profit Takers/ Breakeven

1.) Abacus, MDR and Mountpeak sold 61.5Mil worth in total together between 98 cents to 1.00

2.) Triton, Equitiworld, HE Bennett, First Resources, Citiseconline, Benjamin, Mercantile and Optimum sold a total of Php60.7 M worth between 0.95-1.02

Symbol Name Buy Ave Sell Ave
102 ABACUS SECURITIES CORPO 0.9738 0.9872 32,441,750
208 MDR SECURITIES, INC. 1.0005 0.9759 26,855,370
210 MOUNT PEAK SECURITIES, 1.0043 0.9909 18,068,650
136 TRITON SECURITIES CORPO 1.0406 1.0272 16,884,350
153 EQUITIWORLD SECURITIES, 0.9897 0.9578 12,259,720
175 H.E. BENNTT SECURITIES, 0.9874 1.0247 11,536,880
252 THE FIRST RESOURCES MAN 1.0425 0.9799 9,009,690
203 CITISECONLINE.COM, INC. 0.9957 1.0002 8,332,490
123 BENJAMIN CO CA & COMPAN 0.95 0.9583 7,876,600
205 MERCANTILE SECURITIES C 0.9894 0.9741 5,634,050
215 OPTIMUM SECURITIES CORP 0.9623 0.9945 5,154,500

Period: Jan 31, 2012- Feb 14, 2012 (Round 1)

1.) The First Run-up from 60 cents to 1.20 were bought mostly by IGC Securities, Premium Securities, Angping, CitisecOnline, Wealth, Firstmetro, Tower etc.   Nevertheless, the bulk of buyers has average volumes of 85 cents to 95 cents. (We can see this to be a strong support in case things get awry).  There’s quite a huge buyer at 1.12 though from Damarket securities which could provide some temporary resistances.

Symbol Name Buy Ave Sell Ave Net Buy
140 IGC SECURITIES, INC. 0.9544 0.8168 52,044,250
225 PREMIUM SECURITIES, INC 0.7913 0.8286 50,255,660
110 ANGPING & ASSOCIATES SE 0.8428 0.9513 35,464,560
203 CITISECONLINE.COM, INC. 0.9552 0.9 28,720,610
269 WEALTH SECURITIES, INC. 0.849 1.0261 25,161,660
267 FIRST METRO SECURITIES 0.9016 0.8773 16,180,760
253 TOWER SECURITIES, INC. 0.9569 0.9302 14,990,880
210 MOUNT PEAK SECURITIES, 0.8546 0.9062 14,552,360
204 DA MARKET SECURITIES, I 1.1268 0.916 12,569,640
219 PAPA SECURITIES CORPORA 0.8814 0.8712 10,512,760
213 NIEVES SANCHEZ, INC. 1.0361 1.0047 9,507,340
136 TRITON SECURITIES CORPO 0.9658 1.0032 8,976,380
112 AB CAPITAL SECURITIES, 0.843 0.8405 6,709,550
115 SB SECURITIES,INC. 0.9525 0.9225 6,662,040
252 THE FIRST RESOURCES MAN 0.9228 0.8968 6,237,000
190 VALUE QUEST SECURITIES 0.8737 0.9967 3,869,700
2.) Kingspower managed to successfully buy a lot at cheap prices and take profits at 90 cents average. Mercantile Securities also managed to buy a lot at an average of 75 cents and sell at 95 cents average.
Symbol Name Buy Ave Sell Ave Net Sell
389 KINGS POWER SECURITIES 0.7849 0.899 -70,483,270
102 ABACUS SECURITIES CORPO 0.8882 0.8863 -24,139,980
153 EQUITIWORLD SECURITIES, 0.8286 0.8093 -21,893,550
208 MDR SECURITIES, INC. 0.8331 0.7673 -20,898,410
124 B.H. CHUA SECURITIES CO 1.0064 1.0246 -18,500,200
170 GOLDSTAR SECURITIES, IN 0.8684 0.9938 -17,434,640
154 EVERGREEN STOCK BROKERA 0.9557 0.8382 -15,283,410
275 YAO & ZIALCITA, INC. 0.9889 0.7898 -14,215,170
200 MANDARIN SECURITIES COR 0.9516 0.8876 -12,571,150
103 ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES 0.9042 0.8337 -9,420,160
205 MERCANTILE SECURITIES C 0.7444 0.9535 -7,443,960
283 EAGLE EQUITIES,INC. 0.9738 0.8723 -6,330,000
238 R.S. LIM & COMPANY, INC 0.8213 0.8463 -5,363,120
211 NEW WORLD SECURITIES, I 1.0004 0.7973 -5,250,300
266 VICSAL SECURITIES, INC. 0.8861 0.8459 -4,076,140
*****
Conclusions: Lots of resistances at 1.10-1.20 areas, but fairly strong supports at 85 cents to 95 cents presents a good buying opportunity/ tradable range for traders.
Sector Observations: I believe this is subject to NI,DIZ,AGP and other Angping index stocks to perform first, as GEO is just following the moves of the leading stock indicators like NI and DIZ.  Not to underscore the fact that if Nihao or Dizon stops climbing, the musical chairs may consolidate.  Also, if market action is focused on the index stocks or earnings announcements like TEL,ICT,EDC this week, there can be some more consolidations.
With oil stocks being bombard in the news reels, some third liner stocks have been getting some market activity so we’ll see whether the rally can rotate to some third liners like First Metro’s Gus Cosio’s OV, OPM,OPMB picks which are getting some loving in the markets.
What do you think?
-Faceless Trader
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One Response to March 4, 2012 – Some footprints on the sand

  1. Pingback: 3.04.12 GEO GMA7 AAA « spicysiomai

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