With the market uptrend, any pullback I believe, will be aggressively bought (especially if the demand in the stock is high.) To make a real-time/real money experiment that this trend following strategy works in a healthy uptrend, I list below some stocks that are above their 10-day and 20- day moving averages. The less resistances, the better.
Watch list of Stocks as of Feb 10, 2012 (Trading Above Their 10/20 day Moving Averages)
For purposes of risk management, when the price falls below the 20 day moving average, all positions will be sold. Else, it will just be a buy and hold, until the 5,300 in the index (or very near that point) is reached, or a technical indicator (trailing stop) presents a sell.
Cheers, and hoping that this “representative” hypothesis makes money. 😀
Below is a snapshot of a representative account with no positions yet (in order to show step by step, whether there can still be upside made in the markets despite the run-up, as long as one buys on the 10-day moving average pullbacks of the strongest momentum charts, with a keen eye on cutting losses on a break of the 20 day MA.)
Criteria- Technicals only
(Thus, any stock even the speculative Angpings will also be tested using this strategy, no matter how overbought they seem. I looked at the charts though, and so far it can only be a buy and hold for those who got in the entry-setups a few weeks back with a trailing stop. Without any pullbacks, there are a lot of other third liners that can be bought other than the Angping index stocks. Among the Angping index stocks though, I find AGP one of the more attractive ones to buy on a pullback, as this one’s just about to break the previous highs. They are autistic stocks. They don’t care what’s happening anywhere in the world. These stocks have a mind of their own. )
When it comes to trading third liner stocks, one is at the mercy of the jockeys, so one has to make appropriate position sizes, and be aligned with the interests of the major shareholders (whether it be BHI,UNI, any Angping-related stock etc).
Day 1: – Zero positions
I’d like to end my post with this lovely quote.
“In evolution, it’s not the biggest, the fiercest nor the smartest that survive, it’s the one that changes the fastest.” I.e. the key word is to adapt the trading style to the markets, until it stops working. 😀
I call this the Sip a Lemonade portfolio in lieu of what momentum traders usually call as “Drinking the Kool-Aid”. You just sit back, relax and buy the 10 day moving average pullbacks, and hopefully (since we’re in a strongly trending market), probability is higher for stocks to respect and bounce from the 10 day averages, than not. 😀
Drinking the KoolAid – This business jargon is a tasteless reference to the Jonestown Massacre of 1978, this expression means to blindly accept something, such as a company’s “mission statement.” (Source: Forbes)
(Shown above is only a representative portfolio, and is not liable for any wins/losses made. This is simply a performance exercise on the trend following strategy with Philippine markets as a scope. It is possible that the entry and exit can’t be exercised if one were to trade a larger amount. )