Dec. 4, 2011 – To buy or Not to buy back? (Analysis of LC/B)

Most every broker (except F.Yap, Macquarie and Wealth) has been caught wrong footed in the LC/B run up this round.

A quick check in historical broker transactions from the period of Nov. 17, 2011 to Dec 2, 2011 (Starting from the strong breakout in volume and average true range in the 1.30 area for the LC A shares) shows the following price action.

Notice that most of the brokers have sold at the 1.50-1.58 areas, and had to buy back their shares bidding up the prices higher last two days (Dec 1, 2) as the price broke the new line of resistance which turns into support at 1.60 level.

The past two days has seen LC rising from the break of 1.60 resistance to a run up of 1.72, confirming the momentum strength to deliver further.  Checking the broker transactions show that BDO, UBS and CLSA are accumulating.  Notice that Macquarie and CLSA has not sold a single block in the past two days and have been buying the shares higher.  Notice too that their price averages are between 1.57-1.63 levels (Consider this to be strong short term supports).

Abacus Securities and Larrgo Securities are selling shares to the public, and being chomped up quickly by other market participants.

From the nature of F. Yap Securities buying 207 Mil worth just past two days, “eating” all the offers of Goldstar, Larrgo, Deutsche and Abacus combined.  I don’t know what it is, but LC’s bound to go higher, and possibly even to new highs.

For any trader who’s sold their shares thinking initially that 1.55-1.60 would be a resistance, the fact that it was so easily broken, means that there’s no wall holding off the forces of the main LC buyer- F.Yap.

Trade accordingly.  I know nothing else, except to see that this price action is way too powerful.  That’s all.

For any sellers, you have to buy back.   At least respect the price action for what it’s worth.

(Chart wise the B shares are called a one day reversal or 180 degrees, the Dec 1 chart is called a slingshot if I remember my Jeff Cooper setups correctly.  A slingshot’s definition is to take out the lows of the previous day, and to close above the open or near the highs of the day.  The next day continuation of the move affirms the strength of the character of this one/two day reversal.  These short term patterns are high probability.  Do not fight the tape.)

– Faceless Trader


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18 Responses to Dec. 4, 2011 – To buy or Not to buy back? (Analysis of LC/B)

  1. marvin says:

    Hi FT! Nice, I expect LC/B to make a new highs 😉 *crossed fingers*


  2. Jaydee says:

    That’s a pretty nice article regarding LC/B. I was actually shaken out from my position of 1.50.
    What web service are you using to capture those recorded transactions for that stock?


  3. That’s a pretty nice article regarding LC/B. I was actually shaken out from my position of 1.50.
    What web service are you using to capture those recorded transactions for that stock?


    • hmm.. citiseconline has these broker transactions function. I havent tried other online like bpi or first metro, but maybe they also have those data. I know technistock also gives that data to capture recorded transactions.


  4. Ah! Shoots! Double post… sorry about that. FT.


  5. Ben says:

    nice analysis FT. I was able to buy LCB at 1.65 when it made a “buntot”. 😃


  6. albert says:

    hi ft. do you think the reason why fyap is over accumulating shares is because gf deal is in the bag already?


  7. Touched the 52-week-high today. What’s your target on this FT? Do you think it will continue to rise and make a new high within the year?


  8. oops sorry. I meant it went to 1.80.
    52 week high is at 1.82 pala.


  9. Ben says:

    1.60 should be a strong support. Will buy some at that price and add when it bounces up. F Yap gobbled up all the shares at 1.65 though. We’ll see if it goes down some more tomorrow.


    • I have been taught never to average down on a losing position, except when one is positioning oneself into a trade where the fundamentals really are compelling, and when one has sufficient reserves to back all the possible downside risks and negatives. I do agree that taking advantage of the dips is a good strategy, but one must still be favorable toward the chart. I think if 1.60 breaks, 1.50 is another possibility that you have to enter in your buying strategy. In any case, I don’t know too. This could be a disaster in the making, if one averages down and the stock collapses. – FT


  10. steadfast says:

    not all things appear as it seems


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