Sept. 28, 2011- Am I a bad guy to dream of a recession?

Honest Admission From a Trader:

I have a confession to make.  I go to bed every night and I pray for another recession.  In fact, if indeed we are heading for another global recession, which I believe we are, then I have been dreaming of this moment for 3 years!

Why?  Because I am a “bad guy”, right?

One of my biggest regrets is that I did not make as much money as I should have done in the crash of 2008.

 If a global recession is heading our way, then that is an opportunity.  It is an opportunity not just for me but for everybody, including you, dear reader.

Read his full post here: http://www.leadingtrader.com/09/global-recession-why-i-pray-for-another-recession/

Something To Keep In Mind:

There have been traders, both short term and long term alike, that have been looking for a retest of the 2009 lows or for the “next shoe to drop.”  They’ve had this outlook since the S&P was at 850, and the “wall of worry,” so to speak, has been ever present in spite of bearish economic conditions.

The goal of a trader is to align your exposure and risk with the current market structure and trend. There is a huge difference in saying “the market wants higher” and “I want the market higher.”

Could we see $SPX back at 850? Sure, we could also see it back at 1400. My job is not to pray or hope for any directional movements, just take trades as the market dictates. – Steven Place

Read full post here: http://www.investingwithoptions.com/2011/09/27/recency-bias-and-the-next-market-crash/

– Faceless Trader echoes this guy’s “dreams”, but is level headed that until the shoe drops.  We are still in a VERY WIDE trading range.  Don’t get too bearish, nor too bullish.

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13 Responses to Sept. 28, 2011- Am I a bad guy to dream of a recession?

  1. thanks for the quote

    — steve

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  2. Ipit Investor says:

    Hi… I was watching the stock movements and decided to cut losses. My problem is, I don’t know where to start… stocks with the highest % losses ( BEL, LR, MA, MAB – 37% -41%) or those with lowest % ( TEL, VLL, FGEN, DMC, EDC, MER – 6.73% – 20%) losses. OR stocks with less chances of rallying which I only have a faint idea or none at all …. I hope you are online so that I can get your advice and sell today…. Thanks.

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    • hello Ipit investor. Sorry I wasn’t online awhile ago. Hmm, it’s hard to really give an opinion. I’ll do my best to give a rundown on all those companies later in the day. (On which levels you could possibly sell the strength into). .-FT

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    • Resistance Support
      BEL 4.28 3.54
      LR 7.8 6.43
      MA 0.052 0.043
      MAB 0.053 0.043
      TEL 2400/2300 2180
      VLL 2.91 2.52
      FGEN 13.62 12.44
      DMC 38 31.6
      EDC 5.68 4.94
      MER 241 205

      According to anecdotes from traders who know better than me, the first ones that have to go needs to be the ones that fell the most. Try your best to sell them in rally points near the resistances. Its hard to bite the bullet. And, the market (hopefully will rally) para lesser pain for the ipits. Hope the above helps. Take it only with a grain of salt.

      TEL gives dividends of 100 bucks so you may delay selling nit. You can try holding the 6-20% losses. but those that fell large..un ang unahin na dapat ibenta. Ask other peoples’ opinion too. I don’t want to essentially really place buy.sell.hold recommendations because end of day, I want you to own your decisions. Mahirap to pass the responsibility to someone.
      -FT

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      • Ipit Investor says:

        Hi.. that was really fast… except that I can’t figure out how you got your resistance/support levels. I looked at the charts and they are neither the next highest levels for resistance and the lowest for support or the more common levels when I put horizontal lines on the charts. Ha..ha.. and all the time I thought I was plotting resistance/support levels the correct way. Would you like to share?

        Also, do you think this rally will last till Friday or next week? I guess no one knows. If it doesn’t it is going to be really bloody. Thanks again. .

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      • I don’t know how long rally lasts but I hope you’ll stay safe, defensive in this environment. There will be rallies but you should sell into them, ingat. Our levels may be different but just be careful. I am out right now. Will try to give the fibonacci for some, n you can do the rest on your own. – ft

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  3. hahahaha dont worry FT your not only the bad guy. . me too :p

    keep those lectures coming. . 🙂

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    • Watch the YouTube video of the trader who even went on BBC —- he makes all traders seem like we only care about money and nothing about the economy. In my Facebook account. Check my latest shares — ritholz article very good too

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  4. Hi Guys,

    I don’t want to spoil the fun here but I think it would be better to pray for improvement in our investing or trading skills instead of praying for another recession (we can also pray for a longer bull run hehehe). I also didn’t make a lot of money in the this bull run because I am still in the learning curve. Honestly, I also thought for that market recession but this is not the “right prayer”. We may get lots of money but many people will also lose their jobs and many family will get hungry. C’mon there are already riots in Europe and War in Middle East because of social and financial inequalities. hehehe sorry for being an asshole and picking the lines seriously.

    Good Luck to all!

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    • Hello. I’m not sure if you’ve seen the video of the trader who admits of that dream (recession)- makes all traders look like scumbag a-holes. There are many strategies if we are really going to enter into a recession. Allowing for that possibility to happen (being open minded about it)- is the first step in investing and trading. Being aware but doing nothing (staying ipit), and praying for the market to go go up so one can break even… isn’t really the job of the trader in the markets. I know this may sound really cruel. I’m optimistic about this country’s fundamentals. Hence, whatever happens, whether a true recession through the European contagion bolsters more… one is ready to pick up what’s left behind.

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    • if i may add, you have to learn to trade the bull, well you also have to learn how to trade in the bear. .

      good luck

      FT happy weekend

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      • Just a question stryfe, during bearish markets, you trade markets where shorting is available? (i.e. US markets, currencies, options ?) 😀 I’ll be opening a page in this blog particularly to show how to make money in declining markets, and would love to learn how you do so as well. Thank you. – FT

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