Sept 27, 2011 – Mr Fibonacci Reminders & Jeffrey Saut’s Strategies

According to Wikipedia, the presumption of innocence, sometimes referred by the Latin Ei incumbit probatio qui dicit, non qui negat , is a legal right of the accused in a criminal trial, recognized in many nations.  As market speculators, the burden of proof, has to collect and present enough compelling evidence to convince us about what to do with our markets.  The market is innocent until proven guilty.

1100 is a very important level in the S&P 500.  If that breaks, the next target is 1020-1030.  Until it happens, we are in a wide trading range.  One has to remain in a neutral stance.  Highly defensive, yes, but too bearish amidst cheap valuations doesn’t bode well either.  Adopt an “Apple a day” system with hard dollar stops.

Crucial Fibonacci Levels for the Philippine Composite:

Measuring from 2008 lows to current highs, the 38.2% retracement from peak to trough is first seen at 3,423- 3,500.  Furthermore, the 50% retracement is seen at 3,110.  Lastly, when everyone’s given up hope, the 61.8% retracement is seen at 2,803.

There are many kinds of supports.  As I’ve mentioned in my previous post, we have a support level at 3,700 (which is a retest of our February lows).

The bottom line is that some sort of a counter-trend move is coming, with a bounce in equities and commodities quite probable due to the steep and precipitous decline. But we have not yet seen a capitulation to mark the end of this downward move.  If the bounce fails, look out geronimo!

Understand that we are going in a bear market, and capital should be protected vigorously.

These ‘bigger picture’ Fibonacci Reference grids will not change, unless price in the next few months happen to break to new recovery highs above respective 2011 peaks.

Use charts as reference grids in terms of long-term Fibonacci Retracement levels in the US Equity Indexes. – Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Please take a look at Mr. Corey Rosenbloom’s excellent chart analysis in the US Equity indices as a guidepost. For more of his charts: click here.

It will be useful to use the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement to check the securities you’re looking to bargain hunt,as a useful trading support for low-risk long setups.  For instance, with AGI, the 38.2% retracement from the 2008 lows is at 8.68, with a possible quick bounce to 10.00 if we get a rally. MBT’s 38.2% retracement is at 58.00, with a possible rally to 67.00, SCC 38.2% retracement was at 150, with a possible rally to 190.

Do all of the Fibonacci levels one by one.  Verify my own results as well.

I understand that most investors have lost faith in stocks.  I’m not saying we’re going to advance into new highs, just that stocks don’t go straight down.  We can experience rip your face off counter-trend rallies.  If the risks are too much, you know what to do- lessen your size.  Of course, you can simply just redeem and focus on your businesses too.

As for me, trading is the only business in my life, thus I have to be flexible to trade whatever I see, and learn many things (from the forex front to the futures side), just as you would in any business perhaps.

– Faceless Trader

If you have time, Mr. Jeffrey Saut’s 2 page analysis of the current markets offer some really good insights to make money in the current markets.
Jeff-Saut-Market-Commentary
http://viewer.docstoc.com/
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4 Responses to Sept 27, 2011 – Mr Fibonacci Reminders & Jeffrey Saut’s Strategies

  1. JL says:

    hi FT … the electricity supply in my part of the world just got back .. been offline for quite sometime … anyways .. just noticed ur blog’s new look. so ur blog name is now : “just one of the millions of nameless, faceless traders?” wow 21,066 hits already? 🙂 sori … just did not see that prominently placed before (or im just not that observant enough :”> ) .. cool read as always! ur doing the Lord’ work!

    Like

  2. Ben says:

    Nice article as always FT. 🙂

    Like

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