When you look at a price chart, all you see is a hammer. When you look at the time and sales you glean more important information on the actions of the tape. This is my personal analysis on what happened with LC today. I do not claim to know anything about this stock except for the data that is presented to me which varies every single day. My best guesses are the only ones that I’m writing upon here.
Analysis Period – Sept 1 & 2, 2011
I’m a short term trader, so I wanted to know amidst the big drops of the LC stock this past week which brokers exactly were the brave buyers (catching falling knives) and the others who are selling their shares. I wanted to know who would win, the buyers or the sellers.
Using 10M value traded for net buy/sell as a filter , We see 19 buyers and 13 sellers, 5 of which sold north of 40 m or 4 x the amount sold than the average 10-20 m clips bought by other brokers.
In a span of two days, SB Securities (Broker 115), RCBC Securities (Broker 217) and Da Market Securities (Broker 204), Phil Equity (Broker 338) and Wealth (Broker 269) bought above 30Mil worth of shares at averages of 1.48. Other big buyers are Nieves (213), Value Quest (190), ThingOn (328), Tower (253) , Larrgo (193) , Abacus (102) with over 20M worth of shares. Average prices between 1.45-1.50. Notable buyers above the 10M region are F. Yap, GoldStar, Credit Suisse, E. Chua Chiaco, Sun Securities, SJ Roxas, JPMorgan and CLSA. Average prices are 1.45-1.50 as well.
These 19 buyers accumulated 455 Mil worth combined.
There are 5 very big sellers. H. E Benntt sold 146 Mil worth of shares at 1.44, CitisecOnline sold 86 Mil at 1.485, Mount Peak 62 Mil worth at 1.47 and ATR KE 51 Mil worth at 1.47 as well, BDO Securities sold 42 Mil worth at 1.47.
These 5 sellers were able to serve a net sell of 390 Mil worth already. _________________
19 Buyers, 5 Sellers – More evenly spreading out to many buyers
LC shares are now more evenly spread out between brokers and their clients, rather than during the accumulation phase where only a few brokers were able to stealthily buy shares in many months. It looks to me, we’re passing a huge chunk of shares to a new set of buyers. This needs a lot of time, a lot of push and pull and tug of wars on who will win. Do we have enough bargain hunters at current prices between 1.40 – 1.50? We don’t know. We’ll have to keep on watching the stock and let the setups unfold for itself.
A quick look in Finance Manila shows a lot of speculation remains in the stock. Liquidity is still abundant. Volatility is also abundant. I highlighted in red boxes what the public’s feelings for the stock price is. This is just a snippet.
Rallies in corrections are powerful, and with a US market teetering to the brink, maybe that’s the catalyst that will propel gold’s “safe haven status” and the public’s enthusiasm for this asset (mining) and speculation on Goldfields to find some bulls. In any case, it’s going to be tough for the buy and hold crowd, as there’s a lot of churning action to come.
Click this link to go to my google docs for complete information of my work:
Read the time and sales sheet along with the blocks I’ve highlighted to make the market action come alive more 🙂
– Faceless Trader